Market Research: Everything You Need to Know from This Past Week

Uncertainty in the U.S. Market

President Trump’s trade policies and a long-anticipated tech sector correction have triggered a significant sell-off. According to BCA Research, a leading independent investment research firm, a recession remains the most likely outcome.

"Trump’s disruptive policies, combined with the mass sell-off in the overextended tech sector, have led to a sharp equity market pullback, potentially signaling a bear market and a recession," stated BCA strategists, led by Matt Gertken.

Tesla Suffers Major Losses

Tesla was one of the hardest-hit companies during this week’s market turmoil. The company’s market value plummeted by 15% in a single day, marking its worst performance since 2020.

Once trading near $480 per share in 2024, Tesla’s stock has now lost over 50% of its value, amounting to an estimated $800 billion decline in market capitalization.

Inflation Data and Federal Reserve Response

The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a faster-than-expected decline in inflation:

  • Headline CPI dropped to 2.8% year-over-year, falling below 3%.

  • Core CPI declined from 3.2% to 3.1%, also under expectations.

This led markets to increase bets on imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Traders have fully priced in three rate cuts before the year’s end.

Europe’s Trade Countermeasures

On March 12, the European Commission announced "strong but proportionate" tariffs on U.S. products, effective April 1, 2025, in response to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.

The EU will implement tariffs in two phases:

  1. April 1 – Initial tariffs on select products.

  2. April 13 – Additional tariffs on key imports, including poultry, meat, steel, aluminum derivatives, and soybeans.

Poland’s Military Expansion

On March 7, Poland announced plans to reinstate military service due to concerns over U.S. defense reliability. Prime Minister Donald Tusk aims to enroll 100,000 individuals annually in voluntary military training.

"By 2027, we will ensure 100,000 people receive military training each year. I am convinced we will have no shortage of volunteers," said Tusk.

Russia-Ukraine Negotiations

White House special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian officials in Moscow to discuss ceasefire terms. President Trump described the talks as "very good and productive."

Putin’s Conditions for Ceasefire:

  1. Ukraine must not join NATO.

  2. NATO forces cannot deploy troops in Ukraine, even under peacekeeping mandates.

  3. The U.S. and NATO must halt military and intelligence support to Ukraine.

  4. Ukraine must withdraw from Kursk, a Russian-claimed territory.

  5. Ukraine must cede control over regions already occupied by Russia.

  6. A monitoring mechanism must oversee border compliance.

  7. A structured prisoner exchange process must be established.

Google’s AI Investment in Robotics

Google DeepMind introduced two new AI models—Gemini Robotics and Gemini Robotics-ER—based on its Gemini 2.0 AI. These models enhance robots' ability to perform complex real-world tasks, integrating physical actions for direct control.

Nuclear Energy Commitments

During the CERAWeek conference in Houston, major firms, including Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL), pledged to triple global nuclear energy capacity by 2050. The World Nuclear Association expects further industry support in the coming months.

Currently, nuclear power accounts for 9% of global electricity production from 439 operational reactors.

Morgan Stanley’s Market Strategies Amid the Tariff War

Sectors Most Exposed:

  • Technology, materials, energy, and industrials, which derive up to 57% of revenue from foreign markets.

  • The materials sector may suffer from aluminum and steel tariffs, while tech firms face retaliatory measures from China.

Countries to Avoid:

  • Stocks tied to nations most affected by tariffs have suffered the greatest losses.

  • Morgan Stanley’s Tariff Risk Index tracks stocks highly sensitive to tariffs on China and Mexico.

Sectors That May Benefit:

  • Defensive U.S. stocks, including utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples, could outperform cyclical industries like industrials and discretionary consumer goods.

  • Software, cybersecurity, defense technology, and large-cap financial firms—with lower foreign revenue exposure—are less affected by tariffs.

BlackRock’s Market Outlook

BlackRock analysts predict short-term political uncertainty will pressure U.S. equities. However, "megatrends like artificial intelligence (AI) can offset these headwinds, keeping us positive on a six-to-12-month outlook."

Despite slight job growth declines, BlackRock remains confident in labor market stability.

Cryptocurrency ETF Applications Surge

Following President Trump’s return to office, applications for cryptocurrency ETFs have accelerated. While the U.S. currently has Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, financial institutions have submitted applications for:

  • Solana

  • Litecoin

  • Ripple

  • Dogecoin

  • XRP

  • Hedera

  • Polkadot

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reviewing these applications for approval in 2025.

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Disclaimer

This website is owned and operated by FXLIVECAPITAL Ltd., registered under number 2024-00428 with a registered address at Ground Floor, The Sotheby Building, Rodney Bay, Gros-Islet, Saint Lucia, and an operational address at Paseo De La Reforma, No.250, 9th Floor, Tower A, Col. Juárez, Mexico City, Mexico.

Risk Warning

Trading leveraged products such as forex, cryptocurrencies, and derivatives carries a high risk to your capital and may not be suitable for all investors. Before trading, ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investment objectives and level of experience. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please read our full risk disclosure.

Regional Restrictions

FXLIVECAPITAL Ltd. does not provide services to residents of Sudan, Syria, North Korea, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Cuba, Iran, the United States, and Canada.

We do not warrant the accuracy of the material on this Website nor are we obliged to keep all material on this Website up-to-date. We do not represent or warrant that the Website will be available or that it will meet your requirements, that access will be uninterrupted, that there will be no delays, failures, errors or omissions or loss of transmitted information, that no viruses or other contaminating or destructive properties will be transmitted or that no damage will occur to your computer system. You have sole responsibility for adequate protection and back up of data and/or equipment and for undertaking reasonable and appropriate precautions to scan for computer viruses or other destructive properties.

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Disclaimer

This website is owned and operated by FXLIVECAPITAL Ltd., registered under number 2024-00428 with a registered address at Ground Floor, The Sotheby Building, Rodney Bay, Gros-Islet, Saint Lucia, and an operational address at Paseo De La Reforma, No.250, 9th Floor, Tower A, Col. Juárez, Mexico City, Mexico.

Risk Warning

Trading leveraged products such as forex, cryptocurrencies, and derivatives carries a high risk to your capital and may not be suitable for all investors. Before trading, ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investment objectives and level of experience. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please read our full risk disclosure.

Regional Restrictions

FXLIVECAPITAL Ltd. does not provide services to residents of Sudan, Syria, North Korea, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Cuba, Iran, the United States, and Canada.

We do not warrant the accuracy of the material on this Website nor are we obliged to keep all material on this Website up-to-date. We do not represent or warrant that the Website will be available or that it will meet your requirements, that access will be uninterrupted, that there will be no delays, failures, errors or omissions or loss of transmitted information, that no viruses or other contaminating or destructive properties will be transmitted or that no damage will occur to your computer system. You have sole responsibility for adequate protection and back up of data and/or equipment and for undertaking reasonable and appropriate precautions to scan for computer viruses or other destructive properties.

FXLIVECAPITAL Ltd. and its affiliates are not liable for any loss or damage (direct, indirect, or consequential) arising from your use of this Website or inability to use it, including any loss of income, profits, data, or business interruption. This includes, but is not limited to, damages caused by viruses or other harmful components that may affect your computer or data from accessing, using, or downloading materials from this Website or linked websites.

All information collected from your use of this Website will be managed in compliance with applicable laws and regulations. Content on this Website, including pages, screens, and materials, is owned by FXLIVECAPITAL Ltd. You may download or print extracts for personal use only, provided they are unaltered and retain any identifying marks. Distribution or further use of these materials without prior written permission from FXLIVECAPITAL Ltd. is prohibited, including linking any other website to this Website.

Please review the Legal Information, Disclaimers, Privacy Policy, Cookie Policy, and AML & KYC Summary documents on this Website. These documents are available in English only. By using this Website, you confirm that you understand these documents in English or have consulted a professional interpreter if needed.

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